Victorian State Election 2010: Carrum
Margin: Labor 6.7%
Upper house region: South-Eastern Metropolitan
Click here for Victorian Electoral Commission map
Electorate analysis: Carrum covers eastern bayside suburbs about 30 kilometres south-east of the city, from Aspendale south to Seaford. Labor held the seat from its creation in 1976 until the 1996 election, when a 2.0 per cent swing delivered a demoralising defeat in a seat they had held on to amid the disaster of 1992. A 1.3 per cent nudge the other way returned it to the Labor fold in 1999, followed by a 10.9 per cent swing in the 2002 landslide. There was a 5.5 per cent swing back to the Liberals in 2006, no doubt fuelled by the Bracks government’s decision to place tolls on the Eastlink road project, which despite the media’s “Mitcham to Frankston Freeway” designation had its southern terminus at Carrum Downs. However, this still left Labor with a handy 6.7 per cent buffer.
Labor’s member since 1999 has been Jenny Lindell, who had earlier been an electorate officer to Mal Sandon, the Kirner government Police Minister who lost the seat in 1996. A member of the Labor Unity (Right) faction, Lindell was appointed Speaker after the 2006 election, following the retirement of Judy Maddigan. The seat will be contested for the Liberals by Kingston deputy mayor Donna Bauer, who has represented the council’s South ward since her election in 2008.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.