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Topic: two-party preferred vote
Can we still trust political polling?

Can we still trust political polling?

In the wake of a shock election result, the public have been left wondering how the polls got it so wrong — and if we can rely on them in the future.

Why federal election polling numbers should have you concerned

Why federal election polling numbers should have you concerned

You may think that unanimity across the results of multiple two-party preferred polls would mean they must be accurate, but you'd be wrong.

Coalition recovers some lost ground

Coalition recovers some lost ground

Good morning, early birds. The Coalition enjoys a mild boost in the polls since its immediate post-Libspill plunge. Plus, an SAS soldier receives threats for assisting a war crime inquiry. It's the news you need to know, with Chris Woods.

Poll Bludger: shining a light on the dark corners of opinion polling

Poll Bludger: shining a light on the dark corners of opinion polling

The prerogative for pollsters to keep their mix of herbs and spices secret is problematic, particularly as the long-term escalation of the minor party vote makes preference allocations ever more significant.

Crikey Worm: Coalition slumps in regional Oz, and Frydenberg argues against a CET

Crikey Worm: Coalition slumps in regional Oz, and Frydenberg argues against a CET

Good morning, early birds. Yet more bad news for PM Malcolm Turnbull this morning as Newspoll indicates huge losses for his government's two-party preferred in regional Australia. And the Productivity Commission's report into the best way to distribute the GST is set to land. It's the news you need to know, with Max Chalmers.

Poll Bludger: is Dan Andrews hurting Shorten’s chances of winning the next election?

Poll Bludger: is Dan Andrews hurting Shorten’s chances of winning the next election?

A great convergence has been under way in the four largest states, eliminating a pattern through the last three elections in which Victoria reigned as Labor's strongest state.

Essential: Labor maintains lead, voters split on Captain Cook’s ‘invasion’

Essential: Labor maintains lead, voters split on Captain Cook’s ‘invasion’

Labor is clinging to a narrow lead as the election nears, while voters support more direct government intervention to protect jobs, this week's Essential Report shows.

Essential: Turnbull wows voters on debut

Essential: Turnbull wows voters on debut

Malcolm Turnbull is well regarded by voters in his early days as Prime Minister, but Bill Shorten has also lifted in their eyes, today's Essential Report shows.

Poll Bludger: can Abbott close polling gap before the election?

Poll Bludger: can Abbott close polling gap before the election?

Tony Abbott has his work cut out for him trying to chase lost ground in Queensland, South Australia and Victoria.

Essential: voters split on Abbott ouster, but don’t think he’ll last

Essential: voters split on Abbott ouster, but don’t think he’ll last

Voters don't believe Tony Abbott will make it to the next election, and many want him removed forthwith, today's Essential Report polling shows.