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Topic: polling
Political polling is having an existential crisis

Political polling is having an existential crisis

Pollsters now face a serious challenge in restoring their credibility, and there is no indication this can be accomplished with existing methods.

Can we still trust political polling?

Can we still trust political polling?

In the wake of a shock election result, the public have been left wondering how the polls got it so wrong — and if we can rely on them in the future.

Echoes of ‘Howard’s battlers’ put Morrison ahead in polls

Echoes of ‘Howard’s battlers’ put Morrison ahead in polls

This was far from a status quo result, but rather some major swings in suburbs and regional areas that cancelled each other out.

Coalition recovery is too little, too late

Coalition recovery is too little, too late

It would take something special for the Coalition to win it from here. Still, the fog of war is thick enough that the full range of possibilities needs to be countenanced.

Can the bookies tell us who will be the next prime minister?

Can the bookies tell us who will be the next prime minister?

Some pundits swear by the idea the betting markets are a stronger indicator of an upcoming election's outcome than any polling. But how does it work?

The five final steps to a Labor victory

The five final steps to a Labor victory

A veteran ALP pollster has some advice for Bill Shorten: you need a message if you want to cut through to swing voters before Saturday.

Labor is looking towards a victory — but one far harder than it should have been

Labor is looking towards a victory — but one far harder than it should have been

Polls and on-the-ground intelligence suggests Labor will fall over the line on Saturday, but it should have sealed the deal ages ago.

What if everything you thought you knew about the budget was a lie?

What if everything you thought you knew about the budget was a lie?

Crikey readers discuss the federal budget, fiscal policy and problems with election polls.

Why federal election polling numbers should have you concerned

Why federal election polling numbers should have you concerned

You may think that unanimity across the results of multiple two-party preferred polls would mean they must be accurate, but you'd be wrong.

Don’t get too excited about Clive Palmer — yet

Don’t get too excited about Clive Palmer — yet

Suddenly Clive Palmer has displaced Pauline Hanson as the tribune of discontented Queensland voters. The polling basis for that is thin indeed — but Palmer's technique is a last-minute ad blitz that has shifted votes before and could do it again.