Contrary to what you read in the press, voters don't shift dramatically every fortnight in their support for political parties. That requires something genuinely massive, which is what Josh Frydenberg will need to produce on Tuesday.
There are many reasons voters have backed micro-party candidates at the federal level. But will these hold up at the state level?
Scott Morrison is moving much faster to deal with crises than Malcolm Turnbull — but the problem for the Liberals is that crises keep erupting.
But it's probably the result of occupational hazard.
The Liberal leadership spill has proven to be disastrous for polling numbers. What, then, was the point?
The idea that preferred prime minister is a useful polling indicator is hard to kill, but the government is much better placed than it was earlier this year.
Where do Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals really sit after the carnage of Super Saturday? It depends which way you read the polling.
Crikey readers respond to our analysis of opinion polling and Turnbull's mess with China and the US.
If the Liberals are going to take the fight to Labor at the next federal election, they're going to need to put the grey vote front and centre of their election strategy.
When it comes to reporting polls, journalists think statistical noise is real, and correlation always equals causation.