Where do Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals really sit after the carnage of Super Saturday? It depends which way you read the polling.
The Tasmanian Liberals have gained ground in the lead up to tomorrow's state election, but there are still a few battlegrounds that could see the tide turn.
In Australia's poorest state, Labor represents a default setting that voters gravitate back to after their infrequent acts of rebellion.
Both sides are busy spinning the weekend's byelection result, but the Liberals' claim to bragging rights is outwardly more compelling.
A win for Kristina Keneally tomorrow is a big ask -- but not without precedent.
Ultimately, the most satisfying explanations for the result are those that are most specific to the circumstances of the electorate and of Barnaby Joyce personally.
With the Greens now laying claim to three state lower house seats in both New South Wales and Victoria, the next question is whether they can gain a seat in the Queensland parliament on Saturday.
The marriage equality result is more intriguing for the ways it has failed to play to the culture war script.