The sharemarket ended the financial year on a buoyant note — but in the real economy things are getting worse and the government will face growing pressure to deploy its resources to help out.
Stage three of the government's tax package provides a windfall for high income earners, is unfunded and will increase inequality, an independent report shows.
Despite the government's focus on tax, Labor's fiscal policy is the more boringly conservative and risk-averse approach of the major parties, and is all the better for it.
Labor has long insisted the government cut health funding. In fact, health spending has risen significantly under the Coalition.
The Coalition have taken aim at Labor, projecting a huge tax hike. But putting this forward as an argument conveniently ignores the bigger issues with Australian taxation.
An ignorant media is attacking the government over the NDIS, reinforcing perceptions the Coalition doesn't care about people with disabilities.
Mathias Cormann has been crucial to the return to surplus forecast for next year. But so too has the Liberal Party's addiction to taxing Australians.
Tonight's budget is a major piece of political theatre for the government, but it doesn't have a lot to do with fiscal policy or the economy.
Contrary to what you read in the press, voters don't shift dramatically every fortnight in their support for political parties. That requires something genuinely massive, which is what Josh Frydenberg will need to produce on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank has confirmed that income taxes have risen far more quickly than usual in recent years, demonstrating the Coalition's claim to being the big tax party of Australian politics.