Margin: Labor 5.0%
Region: Caboolture/Bribie Island
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: Pumicestone extends from the northern part of Caboolture, an outer metropolitan centre located 50 kilometres north of central Brisbane, to the inhabited southern end of Bribie Island. Labor’s vote is considerably higher in Caboolture than in Ningi and Bellara, which face each other across the Pumicestone Channel which separates Bribie Island from the mainland. The electorate was created in 2001 in place of abolished Caboolture, which was held by the National/Country Party from its creation in 1977 until it fell to Labor in 1986. Caboolture was one of the 11 seats won in 1998 by One Nation, whose candidate Bill Feldman defeated Labor incumbent Jon Sullivan by 2.7 per cent after outpolling the Nationals and sailing home on their preferences. Sullivan later re-emerged as federal member for Longman after unseating Mal Brough at the November 2007 election, but was in turn defeated in 2010 by Wyatt Roy.
Feldman became parliamentary leader of the One Nation splinter group the City-Country Alliance in January 2000, which variously had five or six members. This distinction didn’t save him at the 2001 election, when Labor’s Carryn Sullivan wife of the aforementioned Jon polled 46.2 per cent while the rest divided between Feldman, the Liberals and One Nation. Meanwhile in Pumicestone, the anti-Labor vote at the 2004 election consolidated impressively behind the Liberals, whose primary vote was up 17.8 per cent. However, the 2006 and 2009 elections produced little change on two-party preferred as both major parties yielded an equal primary vote dividend from the disappearance of One Nation.
The LNP candidate at the coming election is Bribie Island real estate agent Lisa France.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.