Margin: Labor 5.4%
Region: Northern Brisbane
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Electorate analysis: Murrumba covers rapidly growing outer northern Brisbane suburbs to the east of the Bruce Highway, dominated by Deception Bay north of the Redcliffe Peninsula. Labor owes its hold on the seat to a concentration of strength at Deception Bay, the strongest LNP areas Rothwell further south along the bayside and Burpengary to the north-west. The electorate has had an uninterrupted existence going back to 1912, and in keeping with its original rural orientation was held by the National/Country Party from its creation until 1977. Joe Kruger held the seat for Labor from then until 1986, when he was succeeded by Dean Wells. Wells was previously member for the federal seat of Petrie during the first term of the Hawke government, having won the seat from the Liberals in 1983 before losing in 1984. He served as Attorney-General in the Goss government, Education Minister in the first term of the Beattie government, and Environment Minister in the second. After the 2004 election he lost the support of the Labor Forum/AWU faction, and has since been on the back bench. The LNP candidate is Reg Gulley, an accountant and business manager for a not-for-profit organisation who ran for the Liberals in 2006.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.