Margin: Labor 9.1%
Region: Northern Brisbane
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: Created at the 2009 election to accommodate growth in Brisbane’s northern outskirts, Morayfield extends north from the suburb bearing its name to Caboolture South and west into semi-rural territory around Moorina. It could more properly be regarded as a continuation of the seat of Kallangur, from which it took 20,309 of its 28,145 voters, with the redrawn Kallangur being pushed southwards and retaining only 12,156. Labor preselection for the new seat loomed as a battle between Carolyn Male of the Labor Forum/AWU faction, whose existing seat of Glass House had been made extremely precarious by the redistribution, and 25-year-old lawyer Mark Ryan of the Left. The impasse was resolved when Linda Lavarch agreed not to contest the election, making Pine Rivers (successor to Lavarch’s abolished seat of Kurwongbah) available to Male. The LNP’s candidate at the coming election is pizza shop owner Darren Grimwade.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.