Margin: Labor 13.9%
Region: Logan City
Outgoing member: John Mickel (Labor)
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: The electorate of Logan takes in an outer suburban area south of the Logan Motorway, including Regents Park and Heritage Park, from which it extends southwards through the semi-rural outskirts from Maclean east to Logan Village. A seat bearing the name has existed on-and-off since 1873, mostly returning conservative members until the area was overrun by low-cost housing after World War II. It has been extremely safe for Labor since its re-creation at the 1986 election, when Wayne Goss moved in after one term as member for Salisbury (which was abolished in 1992). John Mickel assumed the seat upon Goss’s retirement in 1998 and rose to cabinet after the 2004 election, receiving the consolation prize of the speakership when he was dropped after the 2009 election. After announcing he would not seek another term in August last year, Mickel together with Anna Bligh decisively threw their weight behind Linus Power, a party organiser and colleague of Mickel in the Labor Forum/AWU faction who had previously been mentioned as a possible successor to Anthony Chisholm as the party’s state secretary.
The LNP opponent initially endorsed Peter Anderson-Barr, a police sergeant and Army Reserve warrant officer, but he withdrew early in the campaign after media reports from 2004 were circulated concerning an incident in which he allegedly struck an offender who had spat at him. The LNP’s assertion that Anderson-Barr was the victim of a Labor Party smear campaign was rubbished by Matt Condon of the Courier-Mail. Anderson-Barr’s wife, Joanna Lindgren, is running for the LNP in Inala. The party’s new candidate is American emigrant Michael Pucci, who served with the United States Marine Corps and met his wife during a posting in Brisbane.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.