Margin: Labor 4.6%
Region: Northern Brisbane
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Electorate analysis: The electorate of Kallangur is located roughly 25 kilometres north of the central Brisbane, extending from Kallangur itself (Labor’s greatest source of strength in the electorate) west to Kurwongbah, north to the southern edge of Narangba and south to Murrumba Downs. The creation of Morayfield to the north resulted in it being dramatically redrawn at the redistribution before the 2009 election, such that the new seat had more voters from Kallangur as previously constitututed than the redrawn Kallangur. The effect was to push the electorate southwards, exchanging Burpengary and Morayfield for territory along the western side of Bruce Highway as far Murrumba Downs.
The seat was held from its creation until 2009 by Labor’s Ken Hawyard, who survived relatively close shaves when the 1995 backlash reduced his margin to 4.0 per cent, and in 1998 when One Nation overtook the Liberals and fell 3.9 per cent short of defeating him on preferences. Upon his retirement he was succeeded by Australian Services Union official Mary-Anne O’Neill, who survived a 6.4 per cent swing on her debut at the 2009 election. The LNP candidate is Trevor Ruthenburg, a former RAAF engineer who currently works as executive officer to the Lutheran Church of Australia.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.