Margin: Labor 6.9%
Region: Southern Brisbane
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: Greenslopes is located in Brisbane’s inner south, extending from Coorparoo south to Mount Thompson. The parties’ broader fortunes over the years have been closely shadowed by the results in Greenslopes, such that the electorate is rivalled only by Mansfield as a litmus test seat. The Liberals held it from its creation in 1960 until 1983, when former minister Bill Hewitt became one of many casualties of the electorate’s thumbs-down to his party’s anti-Joh rebellion. The National Party victor, Leisha Harvey, later became Health Minister and was convicted on Fitzgerald-related misappropriation charges following her crushing electoral defeat in 1989. Gary Fenlon subsequently held the seat for Labor, barring the term following his narrow defeat by the Liberals in 1995.
Fenlon retired at the 2009 election and was succeeded by Brisbane barrister Cameron Dick, whose brother Milton Dick is a former state party secretary and current Brisbane City councillor serving Richlands ward. Dick had an earlier brush with politics when he served for a year as acting Attorney-General in the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, and worked as a ministerial staffer to Merri Rose before becoming a barrister in 2006. A member of the Labor Forum/AWU faction, he was immediately elevated to cabinet as Attorney-General and Industrial Relations Minister, exchanging the former portfolio for education in the February 2011 reshuffle. His LNP opponent at the coming election is Ian Kaye, a police officer.
On the Monday before polling day, the Courier-Mail reported that Labor internal polling had Cameron Dick and Andrew Fraser set to lose their respective seats of Greenslopes and Mount Coot-tha.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.