Australian polls aren't just unreliable — the majority of voters pay little attention to politics, so claims that sentiment shifts from week to week are impossible to prove.
The pollster has placed the Coalition soundly ahead in its first analysis since the shock federal election result. But without an explanation of how its methods have changed since the election, will anybody believe it?
In the wake of a shock election result, the public have been left wondering how the polls got it so wrong — and if we can rely on them in the future.
It would take something special for the Coalition to win it from here. Still, the fog of war is thick enough that the full range of possibilities needs to be countenanced.
A veteran ALP pollster has some advice for Bill Shorten: you need a message if you want to cut through to swing voters before Saturday.
Suddenly Clive Palmer has displaced Pauline Hanson as the tribune of discontented Queensland voters. The polling basis for that is thin indeed — but Palmer's technique is a last-minute ad blitz that has shifted votes before and could do it again.
To get into a position where it is even able to cling to minority government, the Coalition will need to hack a path through seats currently held by Labor.