Margin: Nationals 11.7% versus Independent
Region: Central West
Outgoing member: Russell Turner (Nationals)
Click here for NSW Electoral Commission map
Electorate analysis: The city of Orange is located in the far south of an 11,867 square kilometre electorate that extends north to Wellington and Mudgee. It was significantly redrawn with the redistribution before the 2007 election, which added the area around Mudgee and detached areas including Cowra. The seat has existed without interruption since 1859, barring the period of proportional representation from 1920 to 1927. It was last in Labor hands in 1947, and has since been held by the National/Country Party. Garry West was succeeded as member by Russell Turner at a by-election in 1996, which the Nationals were lucky to survive after suffering a swing of 13.8 per cent (they lost the seat of Clarence at another by-election on the same day. Turner is bowing out at the coming election and will be succeeded as Nationals candidate by Andrew Gee, a barrister and local party branch president who won preselection ahead of Kim Currie, chief executive of local tourism marketing group Taste Orange, and Fiona Rossiter, an Orange councillor.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.