Margin: Nationals 10.1%
Region: Broken Hill and Far South-West
Click here for NSW Electoral Commission map
Electorate analysis: Murray-Darling covers the entirety of western New South Wales, including the length of the South Australian border, 300 kilometres of the Queensland border and 500 kilometres of the Victorian border. The outstanding population centre is Broken Hill; others include Deniliquin near the Victorian border, and Wentworth on the Murray. With the ongoing decline of remote areas, redistributions over time have diluted the influence of Labor-voting Broken Hill and increased that of its conservative surrounds. The one before the 2007 election produced an 8.1 per cent shift in the Nationals’ favour, giving them a 1.4 per cent notional margin in a Labor-held seat. They duly won the seat from colourful Labor member Peter Black, who was dumped by an 8.9 per cent swing. The victorious Nationals member was John Williams, described by the party’s website as having more than 20 years experience as a small business operator in the Murray-Darling region.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.