Margin: Labor 16.1%
Region: Eastern Sydney
Federal: Kingsford Smith
Click here for NSW Electoral Commission map
Electorate analysis: Maroubra includes the northern end of the entrance to Botany Bay, extending west to Little Bay and north to Maroubra Junction. The electorate was created in 1950 and has provided a home for two Labor premiers Bob Heffron from 1950 to 1968 and Bob Carr from 1983 to 2005, with Bill Haigh holding the seat in the interim. Carr’s departure initiated a preselection struggle between various members of the Right: Michael Daley and Chris Bastic, both lawyers and Randwick councillors, along with Penny Wright, former government relations officer with the ANZ. The rank-and-file ballot was won by Daley with 140 votes against 110 for Wright, after accounting for the affirmative action loading. Daley polled 58.3 per cent at the by-election in the absence of a Liberal candidate, down from Bob Carr’s 64.1 per cent in 2003.
Daley was one of five MPs Morris Iemma sought to bring into cabinet in the September 2008 reshuffle which provoked the Right faction rebellion which cost him his job. He still managed to win his promotion in the ensuing wash-up, taking on the role of Roads Minister, and was further elevated to Police Minister in a reshuffle in September 2009. His Liberal opponent is Michael Feneley, director of the heart lung program at St Vincent’s Hospital and candidate for Kingsford Smith at the federal election.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.