Margin: Nationals 6.0% versus Independent
Region: Rural North-West
Click here for NSW Electoral Commission map
Electorate analysis: At 221,570 square kilometres, Barwon is one of the state’s two conspicuously large electorates, the other being the slightly bigger Murray-Darling. Collectively they account for 58 per cent of the total area of the state. The redistribution before the 2007 election nearly doubled Barwon’s size due to a 12 per cent decline in projected enrolment since 1998. Barwon has existed without interruption since 1927, and has only been held by Labor after the 1930 election and from 1940 to 1950. The National/Country Party has held the seat since 1950, Ian Slack-Smith assuming it when former leader Wal Murray retired in 1995. Slack-Smith retired in 2007 and was succeeded by Kevin Humphries, a former high school principal and consultancy business operator who won preselection from a field of six candidates. Humphries gained the minor portfolios of healthy lifestyles, Aboriginal affairs and western New South Wales in the December 2008 reshuffle.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.