Margin: Labor 20.9%
Location: Northern Melbourne, Victoria
In a nutshell: The safe Labor seat of Scullin has been a Jenkins family business since 1969, with Harry Jr succeeding Harry Sr in 1986. Jenkins the younger has achieved a high profile that had previously eluded him since 2007 as Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Electorate analysis: Created as Darebin in 1949, this Melbourne northern suburbs electorate was renamed in 1969 when an inner-city seat bearing the name Scullin was abolished. Another dramatic change came in 1984, when it moved further north into Epping and Thomastown while its traditional base of Preston and Reservoir further south was transferred to Batman. It currently extends east through Mill Park and Bundoora to Plenty. Labor has almost invariably held the seat by double-digit margins, the last two members being Harry Jenkins Sr (1969-1986) and his son Harry Jenkins Jr (1986-present). Jenkins narrowly survived a preselection challenge ahead of the current election from 28-year-old Electrical Trades Union official Nathan Murphy, and has gone on to serve as Speaker since Labor came to office.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Read Bowe’s blog, The Poll Bludger.