Margin: Liberal 13.8%
Location: Gold Coast, Queensland
In a nutshell: The length of the Gold Coast has always been highly reliable for the conservative forces, outside of recent Labor landslides at state level. Moncrieff covers the area around Surfers Paradise and has been securely held for the Liberals by Steven Ciobo since 2001.
Moncrieff covers the Gold Coast from Miami north through Surfers Paradise to Nerang Head, and inland to Nerang and Highland Park. The redistribution has transferred 4400 voters further inland, at Gilston and Worangary, to the new seat of Wright, while adding 1200 voters at Nerang from Fadden in the north. The seat was created when parliament was enlarged in 1984, and at which point it extended deep into rural territory at Beaudesert. It assumed its current coastal orientation when the Beaudesert area was transferred to Forde in 1996.
Steven Ciobo assumed the seat in 2001 on the retirement of Kathy Sullivan, member since the seat’s creation in 1984 and previously a Senator from 1974, making her the longest serving female member in the history of federal parliament. A member of the Liberal Right faction associated with former ministers Santo Santoro and Warwick Parer and former councillor Michael Caltabiano, Ciobo rose to the shadow ministry in small business and tourism following the defeat of the Howard government. He was demoted to tourism, the arts, youth and sport when Tony Abbott became leader, generally reckoned to be a result of his support for Turnbull.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Read Bowe’s blog, The Poll Bludger.