Margin: Labor 15.5%
Location: Outer South-Western Melbourne, Victoria
In a nutshell: Whatever else happens on August 21, Julia Gillard will not be joining Stanley Bruce and John Howard in the prime ministerial seat losers club. Her electorate is based around rock-solid Werribee in Melbourne’s west, and has been secure for Labor for over four decades.
Electorate analysis: The Prime Minister’s electorate of Lalor covers the outer western Melbourne centres of Sunbury, Melton, Werribee and Point Cook on the bay. It originally extended far beyond the metropolitan area to Seymour and Kyneton in the north, which considerably dampened Labor’s margins, although it fell to the Liberals only in 1966. A redistribution then made it safe for Labor by replacing the rural and semi-rural areas with Laverton in Melbourne’s west. It thereby provided a refuge for Jim Cairns, whose inner-east Melbourne electorate of Yarra had been abolished, and has since provided a comfortable home for Barry Jones from 1977 and Julia Gillard since 1998.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Read Bowe’s blog, The Poll Bludger.