Margin: Labor 9.0%
Location: North-Eastern Melbourne, Victoria
In a nutshell: Created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, Jagajaga has been held at all times by Labor, whose closest shave was a 2.6 per cent win with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. It was at that election that current member Jenny Macklin came to the seat.
Electorate analysis: Jagajaga covers suburbs in Melbourne’s north-east, from Heidelberg and Ivanhoe out to North Warrandyte in the east, with the Yarra River as the southern boundary. It was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, in large part replacing abolished Diamond Valley. Diamond Valley helped usher the Whitlam government in and out of power, falling to Labor in 1972 and then being recovered by defeated Liberal member Neil Brown in 1975. Brown lost the seat to Labor’s Peter Staples with the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983, returning as member for Menzies in 1984. Staples held Jagajaga from its creation until his retirement in 1996, watching the margin fall to 2.6 per cent in the Victorian anti-Labor backlash of 1990.
Staples was succeeded by Jenny Macklin, a former researcher and state ministerial staffer and a member of the Socialist Left. Macklin retained the seat by 2.6 per cent on her debut in 1996 and held on with only slightly stronger margins over the next three elections. Macklin rose to the position of deputy leader from after the 2001 election until Kim Beazley was deposed by Kevin Rudd in December 2006, when she made way for Julia Gillard. She also exchanged her education portfolio for family and community services and indigenous affairs, which she has retained in government.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Read Bowe’s blog, The Poll Bludger.