Possum Comitatus

Editor of Pollytics

Political Commentator and Blogger

Latest

The polls after Rudd: state-by-state breakdown smiles on Labor

The polls after Rudd: state-by-state breakdown smiles on Labor

July 2, 2013

Now that politics has reset itself, it’s worth looking at the polls since the change of PM — the results of which can pretty much be described as consensus … Rudd poll boost, ALP becomes competitive, etc. But there’s something else worth talking about: what’s going on underneath these topline national results. Unless one side […]

Post-leadership polling: look to the states, where elections are won and lost

July 2, 2013

Headlines trumpeting national two-party preferred polling results are clouding the dynamics and reality of what is happening at the state level, where the numbers really matter, writes Possum Comitatus.

Robocalls and megapolls: secrets of a modern political campaign

April 23, 2013

Let’s kick the door down on the secrecy and see how a modern campaign actually runs — the research involved, the technology, the analysis, the logistics of the ground game and the capabilities that get brought to the table when all of these things become integrated. Let’s look at the anatomy of a modern campaign […]

Secrets revealed: anatomy of a modern political campaign

Secrets revealed: anatomy of a modern political campaign

April 23, 2013

Want to know how secret internal polling is conducted and put to use? Possum Comitatus kicks the door down, exposing how a modern politician campaign actually runs.

Queensland’s mega-poll: privatisation and voting intention

April 12, 2013

The largest scientific political poll undertaken in Australian history has just been released. Over the next week or so, we’ll examine it. It was commissioned by Together — Queensland’s public sector union (caveat: my employer) — and undertaken by ReachTEL. The sample size was 36,323 conducted across all 89 Queensland electorates. The poll asked the […]

Queensland and privatisation mega poll: breakdown and analysis

Queensland and privatisation mega poll: breakdown and analysis

April 11, 2013

Possum Comitatus fires up his Pollytics machine to analyse data and breakdowns from the largest political poll ever conducted in Australia, focusing on privatisation and Queensland.

Pollytrend: cut out the noise and Labor’s numbers are up

Pollytrend: cut out the noise and Labor’s numbers are up

November 13, 2012

The new polling trends — taken before the release of the latest Newspoll figures today — come in with the Labor recovery in the headline two-party preferred breaking the 48-point barrier for the first time since February 2011. While the carbon tax is often described as the single driver for the government’s recovery in public […]

Pollytics: polling trends, carbon tax recovery and random numbers

Pollytics: polling trends, carbon tax recovery and random numbers

November 11, 2012

Possum Comitatus looks at the latest polling trends, timing issues of the ALP's carbon tax recovery and analysis of how most of Australia’s polling and political commentary is based on random numbers.

Possum: PM and the polls, the new primary dynamic

Possum: PM and the polls, the new primary dynamic

October 1, 2012

There is extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the prime minister and the electoral fortunes of the governments they lead. It’s a statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic. We all know there’s a relationship between the vote a government receives in the polls and the satisfaction with the prime minister of the […]

Possum: PM and the polls … the new primary dynamic

Possum: PM and the polls … the new primary dynamic

September 29, 2012

How does a prime minister's popularity affect the governments they lead? Possum Comitatus explores growth in the relationship between perceptions of prime minister's and their party's electoral fortunes.

Possum: the Qld Treasurer needs to redo his sums

Possum: the Qld Treasurer needs to redo his sums

July 3, 2012

New governments are always the last to realise that the only thing new about governance and public policy happens to be them.

Possum: what we think about the economy

Possum: what we think about the economy

June 12, 2012

What do Australians believe about the economy? What do we believe the role is for government in our society and its economy today?

Possum: the polling state of play in June

Possum: the polling state of play in June

June 6, 2012

If you’re wondering what the hell is going on lately with the polls being all over the shop, the time is ripe to run our trend measures to get a better grip on it all.

Possum: Labor’s problem is an immovable 2PP vote

Possum: Labor’s problem is an immovable 2PP vote

February 9, 2012

As we all get reacquainted with the madness that is the first week of the new political season, the time is ripe to do a bit of a comprehensive rundown about the actual state of play of  our political polling. We’ll start off looking at the trends and finish with an election simulation for the […]

Possum: Australian exceptionalism on an eight-lane highway

Possum: Australian exceptionalism on an eight-lane highway

December 9, 2011

“Australian exceptionalism” … let that phrase roll off your tongue. Now stop laughing for a moment if you can. There’s something about that phrase that just doesn’t sit right with us. We’re not only unaccustomed to thinking about ourselves that way, but for many it’s a concept that is one part distasteful to three parts utterly […]

Possum: how Australian pollsters lean

Possum: how Australian pollsters lean

November 9, 2011

We can never really tell if any pollster delivers results that are actually higher or lower for a party than other pollsters, because we just don’t have elections every week to determine the true state of public opinion.

Tax forum gave us naked policy debate and no horseshit

October 6, 2011 150

If you want to improve the debate in Australia, if you want real public debate in this country rather than the dismal sloganeering of the unhinged -- this tax forum is a marvelous template.

Possum: Pollytrend metrics have Labor in palliative care

Possum: Pollytrend metrics have Labor in palliative care

September 29, 2011

With a bag of polling data bursting at the seams, it’s that time of year again where we not only update our Pollytrend metrics.

Possum: polling trends — spring session edition

Possum: polling trends — spring session edition

August 16, 2011

With the Parliament set to start its spring sitting session today, it might be worth taking a look at the current state of play on the polling trends using our Pollytrend system.

Possum: Labor’s worst month in government

Possum: Labor’s worst month in government

July 5, 2011

This quarter has seen everything move towards the Coalition.