William Bowe
Editor of The Poll Bludger @PollBludger
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.
The Gillard government pulled itself up two points this fortnight to return to 50-50 in the two-party preferred. Julia Gillard opened a 53-31 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, up from 48-35, writes William Bowe.
From an already parlous position in July-September, WA Labor is down a point in the latest Newspoll on both the primary vote, now at 29%, and two-party preferred, with the Coalition now leading 58-42, reports William Bowe.
The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck, reports William Bowe.
A Morgan phone poll in NSW state politics has Labor on 22 per cent of the primary vote, the Coalition on 53 per cent and the Greens on 13.5 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 65-35, reports William Bowe.
Depending on your perspective, the big swing against Labor in Victoria on Saturday was either highly portentous or highly predictable.
Two days after the Victorian election and the outcome still remains unclear. William Bowe offers his thoughts on the Greens debacle, how Labor lost it and where to from here.
Labor goes into tomorrow's Victorian election as a barely backable favourite, with offerings on a Coalition win ranging from $4.25 from Sportsbet to $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet.
The latest polling for inner city Melbourne. Plus, a fascinating look at how voters respond "worm-style" to Victorian election ads, with Liberal voters reacting far more positively about their own side's advertising than Labor was about theirs, says William Bowe.
After a fairly lengthy period where the phone pollsters marched in lock-step, Newspoll has broken away from the pack with a 52-48 two-party preferred lead for Labor, reports William Bowe.
The latest Nielsen poll sees a lean to the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote of 51-49 and Labor trailing in the primary vote, but Julia Gillard's personal ratings remain higher at 54%, reports William Bowe.
