William Bowe
Editor of The Poll Bludger @PollBludger
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.
Assuming Julian Assange can overcome the difficulties involved in registering a party and nominating as a Senate candidate, he could significantly affect the next parliament.
An Obama victory is on the cards as enough swing states fall his way -- and he'll be looking for electoral icing on the cake from Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
Mitt Romney's camp insists their man can carry the key states. But however you cut the polling, and even allowing for error and uncertainty around turnout, Barack Obama is in the box seat. Crikey crunches the numbers.
The latest Galaxy poll shows Labor lifting its two-party preferred vote by three points since June -- but they are still well behind the Coalition, writes William Bowe.
With less than two weeks to go, the broad picture painted by a mountain of opinion polling is that Barack Obama’s handy lead of a month ago has disappeared, and that to the extent he is still favourite it is because he maintains slender leads in key swing states. According to RealClearPolitics, Mitt Romney now […]
Leaving national implications aside, the major parties can both take heart from the gains made at the expense of the Greens in Saturday's ACT election.
A diverting by-election looms in the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, former minister Bronwyn Pike evidently having made the not unusual decision that opposition is not for her. This electorate is of course a dead zone for the Liberals, such that the parliamentary balance of 45 pro-government and 43 anti-government members is certain to go undisturbed. […]
Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41.The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, says William Bowe.
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49%, Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%, reports William Bowe.
Following the Queensland election result and yet another downturn for federal Labor in the polls, there has been talk lately about the likely make-up of the Senate should the Coalition win next year's election in a landslide.
