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William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

Poll Bludger: has the budget helped the government's chances at re-election one bit?

Poll Bludger: has the budget helped the government's chances at re-election one bit?

While warring poll numbers cast doubt on voter's love for the Coalition, there are signs that Malcolm Turnbull may soon have a reason to await his preferred leader polls with hope rather than dread.

Poll Bludger: more byelection angst for Shorten

Poll Bludger: more byelection angst for Shorten

The biggest danger to Shorten may lie in the one seat where Labor will not have a dog in the fight: the South Australian electorate of Mayo.

Poll Bludger: Perth byelection lands Labor in a tight spot

Poll Bludger: Perth byelection lands Labor in a tight spot

Bill Shorten will be under real pressure to hold the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond's resignation.

Poll Bludger: shining a light on the dark corners of opinion polling

Poll Bludger: shining a light on the dark corners of opinion polling

The prerogative for pollsters to keep their mix of herbs and spices secret is problematic, particularly as the long-term escalation of the minor party vote makes preference allocations ever more significant.

Poll Bludger: the winners and losers from upcoming electoral boundary changes

Poll Bludger: the winners and losers from upcoming electoral boundary changes

On top of the easily quantifiable impacts on party margins and seat shares, the changes will disrupt the major parties by disturbing finely calibrated balances of factional power.

Turnbull's Newspoll hole not just the result of hubris, but also terrible luck

Turnbull's Newspoll hole not just the result of hubris, but also terrible luck

It's not just self-regard that caused Malcolm Turnbull to come unstuck on this persistent Newspoll commentary. He has also been the victim of unusually stable polling results.

Poll Bludger: Libs' election hopes hinge on the grey vote

Poll Bludger: Libs' election hopes hinge on the grey vote

If the Liberals are going to take the fight to Labor at the next federal election, they're going to need to put the grey vote front and centre of their election strategy.

Poll Bludger: will 2019 herald the triumphant return of the two-party system?

Poll Bludger: will 2019 herald the triumphant return of the two-party system?

The recent trend of voters failing to deliver seats for alternative parties may seem reminiscent of a similar shift in the UK, but there's more to it than voters simply returning to tradition.

Poll Bludger: two-party system alive and well in Batman and SA

Poll Bludger: two-party system alive and well in Batman and SA

With whiplash-inducing speed, media takes about the frailty of the two-party system have made way for prognostications on the failure of its challengers to match expectations.

Poll Bludger: TGIF! Except for Labor, who could have a horrible weekend.

Poll Bludger: TGIF! Except for Labor, who could have a horrible weekend.

This weekend, Labor finds itself threatened in places it could confidently have regarded as its electoral heartland just a few years ago.