William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.


Poll Bludger: what just happened in Bennelong?

December 18, 2017 19

Both sides are busy spinning the weekend's byelection result, but the Liberals' claim to bragging rights is outwardly more compelling.

Poll Bludger: Keneally the underdog tries to take a bite out of Alexander

December 15, 2017 8

A win for Kristina Keneally tomorrow is a big ask -- but not without precedent.

Poll Bludger: as Tim Nicholls finally concedes, what has the LNP learned?

December 8, 2017 10

As the LNP licks its wounds, it would do well to consider what damage the 'toffs in Ascot' did to their chances in regional QLD

Poll Bludger: Joyce’s resounding byelection win is a particular victory for a particular man

December 4, 2017 17

Ultimately, the most satisfying explanations for the result are those that are most specific to the circumstances of the electorate and of Barnaby Joyce personally.

Poll Bludger: Qld election results are disappointing for basically everyone

November 27, 2017 10

Yes, even Pauline Hanson.

Poll Bludger: One Nation slips in Qld, but we’ve been surprised before

November 24, 2017 8

A late poll puts One Nation in an uphill battle to gain the power balance in Queensland Parliament, but Pauline Hanson's guerrilla campaign may still have some upsets planned

Poll Bludger: Greens inner-urban insurgency claims another Labor stronghold

November 20, 2017 15

With the Greens now laying claim to three state lower house seats in both New South Wales and Victoria, the next question is whether they can gain a seat in the Queensland parliament on Saturday.

Poll Bludger: the surprising patterns in marriage equality voting behaviour

November 15, 2017 31

The marriage equality result is more intriguing for the ways it has failed to play to the culture war script.

Poll Bludger: One Nation slows as the Battler Bus loses a tyre

November 14, 2017 13

One Nation's northern ride may be grinding to a halt as succession problems the ghost of the the preference deal continue to get in the way.

Poll Bludger: One Nation factor makes a powder keg of Qld election

October 30, 2017 13

Thanks to the One Nation factor, the Queensland election promises to be the most volatile and unpredictable in recent Australian history

Poll Bludger: how Nick Xenophon could end the two-party political system

October 9, 2017 13

Nick Xenophon stands poised to unleash his full powers of disruption at the South Australian election in March.

The No. 1 person keeping Malcolm Turnbull in The Lodge is … Bill Shorten

September 18, 2017 37

For Shorten, voters appear reluctant to attribute any qualities to him at all, either good or bad.

WAxit might be laughable, but the implications for Turnbull are no joke

September 4, 2017 11

The establishment of a party committee to consider ways to pursue "financial independence" is obviously not to be taken seriously. However, WA's GST complaints should be.

Poll Bludger: surge in youth enrolment ahead of plebiscite spells trouble for Turnbull

September 1, 2017 7

An unusual mid-term surge in electoral enrolment that has had a measurable impact on the demographic profile of the prospective voting population.

Section 44: what you need to know (and the Nats should have)

August 18, 2017 13

With six parliamentarians now referred to the High Court, and the PM overly optimistic about his MPs' chances, we run you through what you need to know about the more high-profile dual citizenship debacles.

How the postal plebiscite might skew the vote

August 11, 2017

Conducting the plebiscite through the ABS as a postal vote has a number of worrying consequences. Aside from the challenge to its legality, it may skew the vote in favour of older, more conservative voters, and even, potentially, make voter fraud more likely.

Poll Bludger: is Dan Andrews hurting Shorten’s chances of winning the next election?

August 3, 2017 9

A great convergence has been under way in the four largest states, eliminating a pattern through the last three elections in which Victoria reigned as Labor's strongest state.

Poll Bludger: are the Greens cooked?

July 24, 2017 15

The Greens can be confident they have their seats in Victoria and Tasmania locked down for years to come. But every other state is a crapshoot from here.

Poll Bludger: section 44 is a sticky wicket in need of reform

July 19, 2017 9

Another one bites the dust. Unfairly, as it turns out.

Poll Bludger: who will replace Scott Ludlam?

July 17, 2017 11

A hitherto obscure and low-order candidate has been thrust into the spotlight: Jordon Steele-John, a 22-year-old disability advocate with cerebral palsy.