William Bowe
Editor of The Poll Bludger @PollBludger
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.
The pollster has placed the Coalition soundly ahead in its first analysis since the shock federal election result. But without an explanation of how its methods have changed since the election, will anybody believe it?
The Coalition has achieved a voting bloc so solid it may not even have to dirty its hands with One Nation.
New leader Liza Harvey will need to rally the WA Liberal Party if she expects to unseat the Mark McGowan government. Unfortunately, history is not on her side.
The number of religious Australians may be in decline, but it won't help Labor much in the short term.
Pollsters now face a serious challenge in restoring their credibility, and there is no indication this can be accomplished with existing methods.
This was far from a status quo result, but rather some major swings in suburbs and regional areas that cancelled each other out.
It would take something special for the Coalition to win it from here. Still, the fog of war is thick enough that the full range of possibilities needs to be countenanced.
You may think that unanimity across the results of multiple two-party preferred polls would mean they must be accurate, but you'd be wrong.
Politicians have a strong motivation to cast doubts on the democratic merits of early voting. Unfortunately for them it's here to stay.
The Chinese-Australian community has significant influence in several key seats.
