The only other likely outcome is an outright Coalition win, despite the problems Gladys Berejiklian has in regional areas.
As federal Nationals whisper of a pre-election leadership spill, the NSW branch has its own share of problems in the imminent state election.
A recent preselection in the WA seat of Stirling has cost the Liberals an opportunity to persuade women in Perth that they should keep faith with the party.
It's going to take a lot more than the goings-on of the "Canberra bubble" to transform the medivac loss to the Coalition's advantage come election time.
With Labor poised to take conventional battleground seats, the prospect of an independent blue-ribbon rebellion means the Liberal Party is facing a calamity unlike any it has suffered before.
Internal polling has indicated a wipeout loss for the Coalition in the upcoming federal election. But is it all doom and gloom for the government?
Some of the worst results corresponded with the electorates of federal MPs who helped bring the party to its present state by backing Peter Dutton's bid for the leadership.
From Ripon to the Latrobe Valley: the places around Victoria we expect to be most hotly contested in Saturday's Victorian election.