William Bowe
Editor of The Poll Bludger@PollBludger
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.
This was far from a status quo result, but rather some major swings in suburbs and regional areas that cancelled each other out.
It would take something special for the Coalition to win it from here. Still, the fog of war is thick enough that the full range of possibilities needs to be countenanced.
You may think that unanimity across the results of multiple two-party preferred polls would mean they must be accurate, but you'd be wrong.
Politicians have a strong motivation to cast doubts on the democratic merits of early voting. Unfortunately for them it's here to stay.
The Chinese-Australian community has significant influence in several key seats.
Certainly the deal is of use to Palmer in his bid for a Queensland Senate seat. But that's not all.
Abbott is going full local candidate this time because he's facing a genuine challenger — and the early polling was terrible for him.
Divided votes and increased competition — David Leyonhjelm's recent failure may be a bellwether for things to come on May 18.
To get into a position where it is even able to cling to minority government, the Coalition will need to hack a path through seats currently held by Labor.
Stagnating votes, plot twists, and dogs that failed to bark — an analysis of the weekend's election results.