Charles Richardson
Psephologist and writer
Charles Richardson has contributed to Crikey since 2002, and was a ministerial adviser in the Kennett government and a former editorial manager at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
Tasmania's system isn't perfect, but it's streets ahead of other states when it comes to fairness. The rest of the country should be watching and learning.
As was widely expected, the opinion polls before Saturday's election overstated the Greens vote. Even so, their 21.5% is a striking achievement. The question now is, what do they do with it?
All you really need to know about tomorrow's election in Tasmania is that no-one will have a majority, so what happens next will be out of the hands of the voters.
Barring something quite unexpected, the new House of Assembly will break 10-10-5 (Labor-Liberal-Green) or something very close to it. However, we're still in the dark about what will happen next.
In the interesting but under-appreciated world of state politics, Saturday's Tasmanian election looks like being something of a milestone: the first of the current crop of state Labor governments to be decisively rejected by the voters.
If the Tasmanian Liberals are to somehow put together a majority in their own right, it could only be by winning a third seat in places like Bass, but I can’t see it happening, writes Charles Richardson.
Forestry is big here in Braddon, and even in the urban parts there’s quite a rural, untrendy feel – it’s perhaps symbolic that the TV in my hotel room refuses to give me SBS.
Charles Richardson heads down to Tassie to report on the upcoming election. Up first, the electorate of Braddon, the only electorate where the Greens don't hold a seat.
The new SA Legislative Council should be eight Labor, seven Liberal, two Greens, two Family First, two Xenophonites... and one seat for whoever is having a good day.
The Tasmanian election result may actually have more significance for interstate observers than South Australia: it could be the big break the Greens have been waiting for.
