Charles Richardson
Psephologist and writer
Charles Richardson has contributed to Crikey since 2002, and was a ministerial adviser in the Kennett government and a former editorial manager at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
This year, the system got the right result. But that was due more to chance than to design.
Mid-term congressional elections are less than seven weeks away, and the GOP is clear favorite to take back control of the House of Representatives.
With hung parliaments very much the topic of the day, Tasmania's situation has some wider lessons.
It's unlikely that many US Republican strategists will have been paying attention to Australia's election, but if they did they might find some striking parallels.
The Greens, in order to be taken seriously as a third force, need to demonstrate an ability to deal with the Liberal Party, according to Charles Richardson. Until they do, Labor will always be inclined to take them for granted and will face only minimal pressure to accept any of their demands.
Once upon a time, nearly everybody voted for the major parties. In 1975, after the collapse of the DLP and before the rise of the Democrats, 95.9% gave their primary vote in the House of Representatives to either Labor or the Coalition. That figure was still well above 90% as late as 1987.
While the odds are heavily against it (and getting longer), pundits love to talk up the chance of a hung parliament, in which independents would hold the balance of power in the House of Reps.
This is probably a good time to stand back and try to say some general things about what we know about Australian electoral behavior, and particularly about the election record of first-term governments.
If turmoil in China is just around the corner, the failings of our political and media culture will be even more dramatically revealed.
Today there's an opinion poll with a difference -- Roy Morgan Research has released a poll of Senate voting intention, showing the Greens set to take the balance of power.
