Charles Richardson
Psephologist and writer
Charles Richardson has contributed to Crikey since 2002, and was a ministerial adviser in the Kennett government and a former editorial manager at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
The Liberals were able to make the Greens into a winning issue precisely because they did not feel threatened by them -- they could treat it as a matter of pure symbolism. Labor cannot. But it is yet to find much of an alternative.
Ever since the election of the Rudd government three years ago — indeed, since before then, for it was not an unexpected event — there’s been a view around that it would mean the end of Labor’s domination at state level. Peter Brent has been a particularly persuasive advocate, although I was sceptical at first. […]
For the Victorian election, the lower house is more of a genuine contest, and the novelty of the reformed upper house has worn off.
Beyond Melbourne and the three big provincial cities are the 14 rural and regional seats. After losing Morwell and Narracan last time, Labor now holds none of them, and that state of affairs is expected to continue.
Improving relations with Russia is a classic win-win proposition; it reduces the pressure on the West and also strengthens the more progressive forces in Russia by drawing the country more closely into the European net.
Unless there's something that the polls are not picking up, it's hard to see the opposition taking more than one or two sandbelt seats.
The Yarra River neatly divides Melbourne in two: the north and west, which (until the coming of the Greens) psephologists never had to worry about, and the south and east, where all the electoral action is.
Charles Richardson surveys the different areas of Victoria (particularly for the benefit of those not familiar with the geography) to indicate where the key seats are and how the different areas might behave.
If the Liberals really thought they could wipe out the Greens, they've left it much too late.
The more Labor tells voters that Greens and Liberals are in bed together, the fewer qualms Greens voters in the suburbs will feel about giving preferences to the Liberals.
