Just how big a rate rise the Reserve Bank will inflict on Australians at its next board meeting in August will be determined at 11.30am on July 27, when the inflation data for the June quarter will be released. The RBA will be undeterred by any warnings about causing a recession after yesterday's record jobs data.
The Australian labour market is tight and getting tighter, judging by unemployment falling to a new 48-year low of 3.5% after 88,000 people found work. That's the lowest unemployment since 1974 (when quarterly surveys were the norm) and came despite a rise in the participation rate to record highs as more people joined the workforce looking for employment.
In fact female participation is at a new record high in seasonally adjusted terms: 62.5%. Three years ago, it was below 61%. If it wasn't for women entering or reentering the workforce in their hundreds of thousands, who in previous decades would not have done so, our labour shortage problem right now would be catastrophic.