Flood-hit communities could be in for more bad weather with forecasters warning winter and spring could be wetter than average.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a new update on two important drivers of Australia’s climate.
It looks increasingly likely the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will enter a negative phase in coming months.
“A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia,” the bureau said on Tuesday.
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“It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.”
Observations and climate models also suggest the La Nina weather pattern, which typically results in higher than usual rainfall, might reform later this year.
“There is around a 50 per cent chance of La Nina forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood,” the bureau said.
“La Nina events increase the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia.”
Australia had back to back La Nina years in 2020 and 2021.
A third, in succession, is rare event and would increase the flood risk in already saturated catchments, University of NSW climate scientist Agus Santoso warned on Monday.