Recession talk is in the air again. A survey just days ago in The Wall Street Journal put the chance of a recession in the US within the next 12 months at 44%.
In a note to clients, ANZ Bank's chief economist Richard Yetsenga put it like this: “History suggests there is a good chance of a US recession when the ... US Fed tightens [lifts interest rates] with unemployment this low and wage growth this high, or the Fed tightens with inflation this high. But history is not destiny.”
America is certainly in a precarious position. The questions for Australia are: if the US enters recession could it spread here via contagion, and; are we exposed to the same forces that might cause a recession in the US?