The World Bank has slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9 per cent for 2022, warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic and many countries now face recession.
The war in Ukraine had magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation,” the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report, warning that the outlook could still grow worse.
In a news conference, World Bank President David Malpass said global growth could fall to 2.1 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, driving per capita growth close to zero, if downside risks materialised.
Malpass said global growth was being hammered by the war, fresh COVID-19 lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions and the rising risk of stagflation – a period of weak growth and high inflation last seen in the 1970s.
“The danger of stagflation is considerable today,” Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report.
“Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world. With inflation now running at multi-decade highs in many countries and supply expected to grow slowly, there is a risk that inflation will remain higher for longer.”
Between 2021 and 2024, the pace of global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points, Malpass said, more than twice the deceleration seen between 1976 and 1979.
The report warned that interest rate increases required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession in 1982, and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies.
Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank unit that prepares the forecast, told reporters there was “a real threat” that faster than expected tightening of financial conditions could push some countries into the kind of debt crisis experienced in the 1980s.
While there were similarities to conditions back then, there were also important differences, including the strength of the US dollar and generally lower oil prices as well as generally strong balance sheets at major financial institutions.
To reduce the risks, Malpass said, policymakers should work to co-ordinate aid for Ukraine, boost production of food and energy and avoid export and import restrictions that could lead to further spikes in oil and food prices.
The bank forecast a slump in global growth to 2.9 per cent in 2022 from 5.7 per cent in 2021, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from its January forecast, and said growth was likely to hover near that level in 2023 and 2024.
It said global inflation should moderate next year but would likely remain above targets in many economies.
US growth was projected to drop to 2.5 per cent in 2022, down from 5.7 per cent in 2021, with the euro zone to hit growth of 2.5 per cent after 5.4 per cent.
Emerging market and developing economies were expected to achieve growth of just 3.4 per cent in 2022, down from 6.6 per cent in 2021, and well below the annual average of 4.8 per cent in 2011-2019.
China’s economy was predicted to expand by just 4.3 per cent in 2022 after growth of 8.1 per cent in 2021.
Negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine would more than offset any near-term boost reaped by commodity exporters from higher energy prices, with 2022 growth forecasts revised down in nearly 70 per cent of emerging markets and developing economies.
The regional European and central Asian economy, which does not include western Europe, was expected to contract by 2.9 per cent after growth of 6.5 per cent in 2021, rebounding slightly to growth of 1.5 per cent in 2023.
Ukraine’s economy was expected to contract by 45.1 per cent and Russia’s by 8.9 per cent.
Growth was expected to decelerate sharply in Latin America and the Caribbean, reaching just 2.5 per cent this year and slowing further to 1.9 per cent in 2023, the bank said.
The Middle East and North Africa would benefit from rising oil prices, with growth expected to reach 5.3 per cent in 2022 before slowing to 3.6 per cent in 2023 while South Asia would have growth of 6.8 per cent this year and 5.8 per cent in 2023.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth was expect to slow somewhat to 3.7 per cent in 2022 from 4.2 per cent in 2021, the bank said.