(Images: AAP)

Well, here it is and here we are. All hoping for the same thing. All? Quite possibly there are a few Liberal-voting readers in this congregation. But I’d be very surprised if many or any are actual enthusiastic Liberal voters. Deep down, do quite a lot of people want him to lose, even those who’ll vote for him? 

Who knows? But for most of us here, the choice the country is offered is surely that between sociality and bubble-tea. Nothing like socialism is on offer from Labor, but on the other side there’s just a frothy nothing, a gang happy to be the point men and women for an agglomeration of mining and media capital that marshals cronyism and culture wars as its first line of defence.

They believe in it too, a lot of them. The culture wars I mean. They are happy to rend society apart with inequality, with waste, with natural destruction to make a point, or to score one. They think society is crumbling, yet they have destroyed government integrity, rational national planning, social care, and much more with a flick of the wrist.

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This all started in the Howard government, but this mob, this freak show of neurotics and leg-humpers, reality refugees and family-trashers, happy-clappies and killer monks, really set the seal. This was what took us down there, to the banana republic, to Alabama down under, aided and abetted by a mainstream media that has become not much more than a black floating toxin, a body of compromised editors and sycophant churnalists, with the usual exceptions. If their cynicism was even-handed that would be a thing, but it is combined with a pathetic toadying to the brayingest voice in the room. Nothing has been so stomach-turning or pathetic to watch this time round as seeing what some people think this profession is.

Labor? Well, it had made it clear it was going to run a campaign that barely looked like one, a mix of small themes and initiatives, war against the occupying News Corp forces on the old guerrilla principle that we’re winning when we’re not losing. Albo did his best, Jimmy Chalmers did his best, they kept at it, you can’t fault them that, fighting not only an opposition but a mainstream media that was at times just psychotic. Just psychotic.

Win and the debate on it is kind of over. Lose and, as I’ve noted, it’s a bitter yield, for one has proposed nothing, no alternative principle for society to live by than this dark alky clown circus. Should they fall well short there will be time for recriminations, and you can bloody bet there will be. But for today solidarity forever and hasta la victoria siempre. With the caveat that the election will tell us who we really are, here’s my call:

Labor wins: Bass, Boothby, Chisholm, Braddon, Pearce, Higgins, Casey, Hasluck, Sturt.

Coalition wins: Macquarie, Corangamite, Hughes

Greens win: Griffith

Teals win: Goldstein, Curtin, Kooyong, North Sydney

Rusts win: Nicholls (probably not; sentimental hope)

And with that you end up with:

Labor: 75 seats

Greens: 2 seats

Coalition: 65 seats

Teals: 4 seats

Rusts: 2 seats (Haines in Indi, Priestly in Nicholls)

Right independents: 2 seats (Katter in Kennedy, Sharkey in Mayo)

Left independents: 1 seat (Wilkie in Clark)

The short take: the swing towards Labor, trending towards 53% (which would take them to 80 seats) will be impeded by UAP preferences and the residual “silent” voters, but that pushback won’t be enough to give the Coalition a plurality.

Prove that I lie.

See you on the flip…

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
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