(Image: Mitchell Squire/Private Media)

Although there are some elements of Scott Morrison's electoral fortunes that are out of his hands -- the emergence of another variant, state border closures -- there's one area of major weakness that's directly within his control: integrity.

The political realist view of integrity is that, for all the froth and bubble around a federal ICAC, the issue isn't important for voters and certainly won't change votes. Voters think all politicians are corrupt, and all governments engage in pork-barrelling, so Morrison suffers no damage from the issue.

Against that, however, is that integrity has become the second string to the bow of the array of independents standing against urban Liberals. Whereas it used to be climate and asylum seekers that characterised centrist independents in the wealthier electorates of Sydney, now it's climate and a federal ICAC, with so-called "Liberal moderates" incapable of shifting their denialist colleagues on either.