(Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

It’s very obvious by now that Scott Morrison is in full-blown election mode. Since last week, the Coalition has doubled-down on presenting a binary choice to voters: freedom under the government v a Labor opposition committed to endless lockdowns and border closures. 

The government knows it needs a sharp, cogent message. Ever since half the country went into a lockdown that could’ve been avoided with a functional vaccine rollout, its polling numbers have been shocking. The latest Newspoll has Labor on track for a landslide. And Roy Morgan now puts the opposition up 54.5%-45.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

As we learned in 2019, there’s no such thing as a uniform national swing, and individual seat polling is far less accurate. And Morrison’s freedom message is clearly calculated to play better in locked-down states. Unfortunately for the government, Roy Morgan’s individual state swings also deliver bad news.