We're not allowed to have a Productivity Commission assessment of Scott Morrison's managed trade deal with Boris Johnson and we can't trust Foreign Affairs and Trade officials to either negotiate in the national interest or properly mark their own homework, but we do know what economists at the Moody’s ratings group thinks about it.
In a note in a weekly credit update, Moody's looked at the deal and concluded "the economic impact of the trade deal is negligible" and translated into "less than a pound per person each year", though there were reasons to suspect the "benefits" wouldn't even be that great. From an industry point of view? "The benefits are similarly underwhelming”.
Much has been made about the impending onslaught of cheap beef into the UK market. In 2019 the UK imported around 1766 tonnes of Australian beef and veal, equivalent to 0.6% of all beef and veal imports. Under the deal, quotas will limit the amount of Australian duty-free beef exported to the UK for 15 years, with a maximum amount of 170,000 tonnes permitted at year 10. Based on current levels, this would represent 54% of all beef imported by the UK.