Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

It seems like only yesterday Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was unveiling the budget he promised would drive Australia out of pandemic doldrums. Abandoning the deficit-fetishism that has plagued politics for decades, he promised big-spending measures. And if the recent drops are anything to go by, he'll promise more of the same on Tuesday.

But seven months later, many of Frydenberg's signature splashes -- wage subsidies and women's economic security -- have failed to have a big impact. And it's unlikely many of the big assumptions underpinning that budget's optimistic projections will play out.

The JobMaker fail

The JobMaker hiring credit was pretty much the lead item in Frydenberg's last budget speech. The $4 billion scheme was meant to use wage incentives of up to $200 a week to hire additional workers aged 16 to 35. Importantly, it was supposed to smooth the winding up of JobKeeper in March, which could cost up to 150,000 jobs.