Donald Trump is still president for another 12 days. And in that time a lot could happen.
After yesterday’s shocking scenes in the US Capitol, there are growing calls from Democrats to remove him from office, while a handful of Republicans have awkwardly distanced themselves from their leader.
The Trump era is nearly over. But it will not go quietly.
Can Trump be removed?
Democrats, and a few Republicans, have seen enough. Even though Trump has one foot out of the Oval Office, they want him gone even sooner.
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There are two ways Trump can be removed. Firstly, section four of the 25th amendment to the constitution provides a process where the vice-president and cabinet can declare a president “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.
Introduced after John F Kennedy’s assassination, other sections of the 25th amendment have been used to temporarily transfer power while presidents Ronald Reagan and George W Bush were having medical procedures. But section four has never been used. And while House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has demanded Mike Pence immediately invoke the amendment, Trump’s removal is unlikely.
Pence would need to bring around Trump’s cabinet, and while there have certainly been whispers about invoking the 25th, so far Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger is the only Republican to go on record demanding the president’s removal.
Then again, there’s the (probably theoretical) possibility that the 25th amendment could be invoked without telling the public, allowing twitchy GOPers to knife Trump in the back.
Still, even if Pence kicks things off, in secret or otherwise, removing Trump requires a two-third majority in both houses of Congress, numbers Democrats simply do not have. Some Republicans are deserting Trump, but not nearly enough.
Pelosi has said that if Pence doesn’t come through, the Democrats will impeach Trump. They already tried that last year, and unsurprisingly couldn’t meet the two-thirds Senate majority required to convict.
Theoretically, the Democrats will hold the Senate balance of power once Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are sworn in. But that won’t happen until the votes from Tuesday’s Georgia run-off election (remember that?) are certified, which might not be until two days after Biden is inaugurated.
At this point, any attempt by Pelosi to impeach Trump would be purely symbolic and almost certain to fail.
GOP still backs the president
Despite everything we saw unfold yesterday, Trump still has an incredible stranglehold on the Republican Party. Most chatter about removing him from office has been anonymous.
After the storming of Capitol, early resignations from the Trump administration were limited to peripheral White House figures — the first lady’s chief of staff, and a deputy press secretary. But overnight, transport secretary Elaine Chao, who is married to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, tendered her resignation, making her the highest ranking administration official to do so.
But it was a different story in Congress yesterday. Even after the Capitol had to be evacuated, ambitious presidential wannabes like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley continued to lead futile debates over certifying Biden’s electoral college victory. And a majority of House Republicans would stroke Trump’s ego by objecting to the results.
When Trump called into a Republican National Convention winter meeting on Thursday morning, he was greeted with cheers. It’s still his party.
What can Trump do?
As Biden’s victory was certified, Trump released a statement committing to an “orderly transition”, just hours after he’d egged on supporters to storm Congress.
Today he released a longer video, where he appeared to finally accept the result, condemn the putschists and call for “healing and reconciliation” (seriously).
But he also had a final message for his “wonderful” supporters: “Our incredible journey is only just beginning.”
Everything we’ve learned during Trump’s unhinged wrecking-ball presidency suggests he will still try and do something shocking and damaging in his final days in office.
Still, as the lamest of lame duck presidents, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do something hugely insane. Plus his social media reach has been hamstrung. Facebook has blocked him until at least the transition is complete, while Twitter blocked three of his tweets during the riot yesterday, and temporarily suspended his account
Trump could certainly make use of his pardon power. In the final days of his presidency, he’s used it to let plenty of his cronies off the hook. He reportedly has a list of family members and inner-circle associates to be preemptively pardoned. He’s also considering rapper Lil Wayne.
And in recent weeks, he’s said to have discussed the possibility of pardoning himself. That’s legally uncertain terrain, because no president has left office with the prospect of criminal charges so real a possibility.
The aftermath
Yesterday’s violence at the Capitol left four of his supporters dead. One of them was Ashli Babbitt, allegedly shot by Capitol security forces. Babbitt was a fervent Trump supporter and air force veteran who’d gotten hooked on Fox News and QAnon conspiracy theories. The other three died from “medical emergencies” and include the founder of MAGA social media site Trumparoo.
So far, just over 80 people have been arrested over the attempted insurrection, mostly for violating curfew. And the difference between the relatively docile police response to the Trump mob and the aggressive brutality witnessed around the country during last year’s Black Lives Matter rallies is stark.
A few blocks away, a pipe bomb was found outside the RNC.
On January 20, Biden will be inaugurated at last. It’ll be a relieving but sober morning in America.
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“… any attempt by Pelosi to impeach Trump would be purely symbolic…”
Wrong. If Trump was impeached and convicted by the Senate he would be barred from public office for life. That might not be at all symbolic in 2024.
Even if a second attempt at removing Trump fails the process might have some value in forcing various Republicans to show they support Trump even after he triggered (deliberately or merely recklessly) a coup attempt. That could count for something in subsequent elections too.
And it might also be a worthwhile exercise, to test just how much Republicans were actually horrified by yesterday’s events.
Given that half of them facilitated it, not much other than for the camera I reckon.
If polls are to be semi-relied upon the answer seems to be not more than half. As for those who said yes and meant no :who knows?
You seem to be be overlooking the political polarisation of the place SSR. With under nine days to run, come Monday, I doubt it recalling both Houses is realistic. Besides, greater suspects than Trump have access to government stationery.
No. The chances of it succeeding are entirely irrelevant to whether it would make a difference. The article says if it happened it would only be symbolic. This is clearly wrong.
As for the amount of time it would take: that is entirely a matter of policitcal will. The leaders of the two houses have almost total discretion about how to conduct the process. They could if they wanted ram it through very quickly indeed.
All that is theoretical of course, but the point remains – it can be done, and it would have real consequences way beyond the symbolic.
You have made my case EMPHASISING that I did NOT infer that the action would be symbolic either . Read polarised politics as delaying tactics for assembly of the Houses and, of course, the debates.
We seem to agree that any re-impeachment turns upon probabilities and to be clear (and for what anyone may think it is worth) I’m assigning the probabilities to near zero.
I have not “made your case” – your case was that I was overlooking something. Au contraire, I was ignoring the irrelevant and sticking to the point I wished to make.
You have acknowledged your own conjecture which you doubt as practical. Dismiss my probabilities if you choose but another dozen days will tell. I reiterate : it would be the 8th Wonder if the matter goes your way (but not impossible).
What conjecture? The point begins and ends with the article erroneously saying that impeaching Trump would be symbolic. What’s conjectural about that?
I am referring to the last two paragraphs of your post of six hours ago. What N-R wrote is beside the point because we agree that a successful (albeit highly unlikely – for reasons provided) impeachment would have consequences.
Taking a fresh look at the matter, N-R (just a guess) may have wanted to convey that the creation of proceedings with the Senate, again, finding for the president would be an act of symbolism. However, you would have to confirm with N-R.
As an aside, N-R does NOT have a track record of detail or accuracy (previous comments refer) but he (presumably for that reason) does seem to be popular among the lower orders and, by observation, I include my ankle nipper.
Trump: now no longer considered responsible enough to have active Facebook or Twitter accounts, but in the eyes of many Republicans, it’s just fine for him to continue as president.
I am far from sure that such a status (social media membership) is something to which one ought to aspire.
..and yet still responsible enough for nuclear codes ?..
Yet Assange is perceived as a greater threat to the nation’s security over Trump and Biden.
And still no one mentions the most stark aspect of yesterday’s fiasco. No counter-protestors from the left. No attempt at confrontation. No chest thumping or baying for a fight. How different the scene would have been if a left-of-centre protest had set out to demonstrate against a right-of-centre vote count certification.
Ask a republican where are they, they protested dressed up like Trump supporters. No kidding there are literally thousands on zoo tube who are saying that.
They’re now also saying the resignation are because the deep state is threatening their families.
Trump can still be dangerous, he could order a nasty missile strike on Tehran which would in turn lead to something even worst.
There’s a chain of command which can halt his trigger finger:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/heres-goes-presidents-decision-launch-nuclear-weapons
True but any General who refused a Presidential order could kiss his career goodbye, much like a whistle blower. Doesn’t matter if the General is right or wrong.
Some significant holes but, credit where it is due, quite an improvement. A tad optimistic in regard to your last sentence-paragraph but never mind. Time will tell.