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He's well behind in the polls, but can Donald Trump pull out a surprise vict- what? You've read that article? Six times? Yes, well your correspondent has been off for a while and was all set to return with a staggering contrarian take, and it's gone and been done, and done.

The truth is that there's so many indicators that Donald Trump is failing in the polls that pundits are now putting in a contrarian take as insurance, pure and simple, in case the universe has become several degrees more screwy than it was in 2016.

Trump is running behind Biden by 10 points overall, a huge margin, and he's falling behind in key groupings such as suburban voters and women overall.