Queensland state elections have a long history of reverberating through national politics, foreshadowing defeats of federal Labor governments in 1974, 1995 and 2012 and establishing Pauline Hanson as something more than a local curiosity in 1998.
Now it falls to the state to be the first to hold an election in the age of COVID-19, the campaign for which officially began this week.
The Coalition’s determination that the result should deliver another blow to a Labor Party still grappling with last year’s unexpected federal loss has already contributed to the breakdown of the bipartisan spirit that prevailed for a time after the virus first emerged at the start of the year.
While Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria has naturally copped the worst of it, the Morrison government has also been ratcheting up the rhetorical pressure on Annastacia Palaszczuk over border closures while giving her Liberal counterparts a notably easier time.
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In contrast to the impregnable Mark McGowan in Western Australia, Palaszczuk’s predators have considered her government highly vulnerable since Labor’s disastrous federal result in Queensland last year.
While her government has only been in power for two three-year terms (Queensland will finally move to four-year terms with this election, the last state to do so), Labor’s dominance of state politics since 1989 has been punctuated by only two short-lived conservative governments, the most recent being Campbell Newman’s one-term crash-and-burn from 2012 to 2015.
This gives Palaszczuk’s administration the feel of a government older than its years, a point emphasised by scandals surrounding her former deputy Jackie Trad and chief of staff David Barbagallo, and a looming exodus of some of the government’s best ministerial talent.
Polls conducted in the first half of the year found the surge in personal approval enjoyed by all incumbent leaders had not translated into a poll lead for Labor, despite soft personal ratings for Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington.
More recently, the News Corp papers have publicised often dubious polling to proclaim that voters were “turning against Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s tough border stance”.
As such, The Courier-Mail may not have got what it bargained for last week when it commissioned YouGov to conduct a poll that ended up crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48.
The large sample of 2000 allowed for sub-samples big enough to provide credible regional breakdowns, which indicated little change from the 2017 result in Brisbane and regional Queensland and a slight swing to Labor on the Gold and Sunshine coasts.
The polls suggest the LNP has at least recovered votes lost to One Nation in 2017, but with little ultimate effect since most of them had been returning to the party as preferences.
Of perhaps greater consequence is Labor’s minor party problem, namely the pressure it is under from the Greens in two inner-city seats — a knife the LNP has turned by putting Labor last on its how-to-vote cards.
While a contentious move among the LNP membership, this tactic helps the Opposition promote the spectre of a Greens-dependent minority Labor government to voters in parts of central Queensland that recorded Adani-powered double-digit swings at the federal election.
Conversely, Labor has an opportunity to exploit links between the LNP party organisation and Clive Palmer, who will again field candidates under the banner of the United Australia Party.
While Palmer’s own electoral support is sure to be negligible, he clearly plans a repeat performance of his anti-Labor advertising campaign at the federal election, to the greatest extent that newly instituted campaign spending limits will allow.
Given the unpopularity of Palmer’s aggressive campaign for open borders, this looms as a double-edged sword for the LNP, whose decision to put Labor last can be characterised as a preference deal with Palmer.
As is usually the case when minor parties muddy the waters, both major party leaders swear they will not form government without a majority in their own right.
Amid a very murky picture overall, one thing that is clear is that events will make a liar out of one of them if the election indeed produces a hung parliament.
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Labor’s Federal loss in 1974?? Don’t remember that!
There was a QLD state election in 1974. Whitlam was defeated in the 1975 election. The writer is correct to point to the fact that in these specific instances where QLD state elections preceding Federal election by 1 year, Labor either lost or did poorly in both. This thesis is seemingly valid. A precursor or curtain raiser perhaps. A bit laboured. One could also say that in NSW there is the opposite effect. Labor NSW Govts v Federal conservative ones and vice versa but the 2010s plus seem to have broken this mould. BTW it was really the ALP Left’s knifing of Deputy PM Lance Barnard in 1975 which generated the famous Bass by-election with Labor suffering a swing of 15% against it that saw the end of Whitlam and the internal knifing of Sneddon by the more experienced dominating Malcolm Fraser as Lib leader that put in places the structures for the end of Labor in 1974 which was more a consequence of State issues where JBP was able to achieve political superiority.
How about a prediction William? Which way do you think it will go?
There wouldn’t be a sheet of “who gives a crap” between Palaszczuk and The Freckle.
What sort of our children’s future is beholden to coal :- 10 daze ago Palaszczuk “proudly” announced the approval of another one, for Olive Downs (80 years and 15,000,000 tonnes of the “Scotty’s Favourite Stuff”)?
Oh for a Labor government reliant on Greens support…. to stop crashing over that far right shoulder of this road to nowhere.
And while it’s not a “state” (in the strict sense) – the August “NT Covid election” wasn’t comparable to a “state election” – when it comes to permutations?
Also – Goodness gracious me, don’t you worry about that – it wasn’t the Labor government (“on film”) channelling Scotty From Marketing, for weeks, advocating the opening of the state borders : then denying (“on film”) ever doing just that, a couple of weeks ago, as “Pea-whistle” Mander and The Freckle did.
How often do we here of these lame-wads saying “the Greens are threatening Labor in (x)? Capital city seat and could hold the balance of power”? Here on NSW they have got the “DINKs central” seat of Newtown and Balmain – bastions of privilege if ever there was – and the hippie haven of Ballina – also a bastion of privilege. I must say that the Greens in QLD seem a preferable bunch to the odious types who populate the ranks here in NSW, particularly the inner-west and eastern suburbs of Sydney, who want to move Sydney Airport away from their homes, out of their life and lifestyles at a cost of 30,000 jobs to Goodness knows where but their influence will be overstated. They will score high but there isn’t the wealth and privilege in Brisbane like there is in Sydney where Greens do well – in complete contrast to working and middle class suburbs and people in urban, regional and rural areas. The Greens simply don’t have enough job-friendly policies in these areas as they are all about esoteric issues despite their protestation to the contrary. I haven’t seen one decent Greens infrastructure policy or transport or population policy in NSW or anywhere else. They do, which I appreciate honestly, support a VFT or HSR connecting Melbourne – Sydney – Brisbane but they are yet to put meat on that policy skeleton. So far, out of all the policies of all the political parties they are the only ones to specifically mention measures and specific place in these measure they would adopt and mask as a policy – close Sydney and institute a BDS against Israel – the only party to commit to retaliatory action against a country. No wonder they don’t do well with the mass of people they claim to speak for and want to save. Even the Libs- Country Party didn’t have a policy of support for Vietnam War – they did so without policy and incorporated it as a measure of government.
No matter that he constantly waffles “on the one hand, on the other”, Billy Bowe is always comprehensively wrong.
Quite an achievement.