(Image: AP/Matt Rourke)

It takes a brave publication these days to claim an authoritative prediction for November’s US election.

The Economist has combined polling and demographic and economic data into a model developed with Columbia University political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Hedemann.

And it’s currently predicting a landslide victory for Joe Biden.

The model is currently predicting 333 electoral college votes for Biden to Donald Trump’s 205.

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As the site concedes, Hillary Clinton consistently outpolled Trump in 2016, before losing the electoral college and winning the popular vote by a much smaller margin than predicted.

The Economist thus argues that what the model produces of value is the “estimate of uncertainty around that prediction … if the model’s best guess is that Mr Biden will win 51.6327% of the vote, then there is probably a decent chance that he ends up between 51% and 52%, a very good chance he finishes between 49% and 54%, and virtually no chance that he secures less than 46% or more than 57%.”

Given polling’s awful record — across several countries — recently, this is a project well worth keeping an eye on.