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There's a trend lurking in otherwise relatively positive jobs data that suggests even after economic growth returns we're in for a long period of stagnation.

Yesterday’s payroll jobs and wages update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the first real impact on jobs from the tighter lockdowns across Melbourne and regional Victoria.

More of that will show up in a month, but between July 25 and August 8 payrolls nationally fell by 0.8%, including a fall of 1.6% in Victoria. Jobs also fell 0.9% in Queensland and 0.4% in New South Wales.