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Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews (Image: AAP/David Crosling)

Victoria will again force a recalibration of the nation's economic and fiscal numbers as it enters a stricter lockdown, curfew and, from mid-week, the most serious economic shutdown the nation has ever seen.

The initial stages of the Victorian outbreak tipped the Morrison government into extending JobKeeper and its supplement for JobSeeker and other welfare recipients, against the wishes of fiscal fundamentalists on its backbench.

The persistence of massive numbers of cases in Victoria has already rendered the July economic update out of date, as Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy acknowledged last week. This week will be another hammer blow that will not merely force a reappraisal of both the fiscal and economic outlook, but require a much stronger policy response from the government.