You might not think it, but yesterday’s economic statement from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg brims with optimism. Its forecasts assume we have the pandemic under control. The bad news in the statement is a result of what has already happened.
As we knew, the economy is in recession. Unemployment is forecast to rise around 9.25% in the December quarter. However employment then begins to recover following easing of restrictions. The assumption is we won’t need restrictions for the latter part of this year and into the next.
Reflecting this confidence, travel bans will be lifted. From January 1 migrants and visitors will be allowed, with a two-week quarantine. Numbers will be lower than in past years, but the statement forecasts some 31,000 arrivals.