If there’s one thing all of us “know” about the COVID-19 breakout in Victoria it’s that it all started with a bonking security guard (or maybe guards) at a city hotel where recent overseas arrivals were housed. Right?

Well... who knows. This story is possibly -- probably, almost certainly -- at least as true as the “illegal dinner party” of hospital workers in Tasmania back in April. According to chief medical officer Brendan Murphy, that dinner sparked that state’s cluster -- until, again per Murphy, it didn’t.

Maybe it’s as true as the apparently strongly held belief that “many of the new cases of COVID-19 in Victoria have been from people who attended the Black Lives Matter protest”. A recent Essential Report showed that 42% of people believed that statement is “probably or definitely true”, compared to 37% who thought it false.