The worst fear of policymakers during the initial outbreak of the pandemic, and the accompanying shutdown of the economy, was that we would end lockdown and begin reviving the economy, only for the re-emergence of COVID-19 to send us back into lockdown again.
That wouldn’t merely extend the economic pain, it would guarantee large numbers of businesses that had barely made it through the first lockdown would close forever in the second. It would also start to bring greater pressure on the financial system as the strain of holding off on business loan and mortgage defaults began to tell on banks.
After much self-congratulation and a bout of Aussie exceptionalism, that’s exactly the prospect that Victoria now faces. The small positive is that so far it is only Victoria. But that in turn creates a new problem, of how to manage a multi-speed recovery from a deep economic contraction.
This is now the emerging characteristic of the pandemic recovery phase — such as it is. Nations do not emerge from the pandemic uniformly, but with different regions at different stages.
The UK, which is celebrating the restoration of some normality, has again locked down Leicester, with a population of over 300,000. Bradford, of a similar size, might be next. Lisbon remains locked down even as Portugal reopens. Catalonia and Galicia in Spain have re-entered lockdown. Serbia declared a state of emergency in Belgrade on Friday. Iran, facing a spike in deaths, has mandated the wearing of face masks. Israel has reversed its reopening. Lockdown has been reimposed in New Delhi. Morocco and Madagascar have reimposed lockdowns in major cities. And, of course, the US experience has always been regional.
Whatever the specific details about how the appalling Andrews government has bungled its way into a second big wave of infections, Victoria has much in common with other parts of the world. And it may well become typical of how we proceed from here, until a vaccine is found, if it ever is: periodic outbreaks that require shutting down of suburbs, cities, states.
In retrospect it seems obvious that, in the absence of a vaccine, a patchwork pandemic was inevitable, but until recently the working assumption had been of a uniform pandemic experience, at least for countries like Australia that can effectively close its borders to external sources of infection, allowing economic measures to be adjusted on a national basis as different regions reopened at the same time.
Scott Morrison’s asinine rhetoric about “snap back” and, later, “getting out from under the doona” — as if millions of Australians had had their feet up at home enjoying a break rather than juggling working from home, homeschooling their kids and worrying about isolated elderly relatives — was part of this monolithic mentality, which has been wrecked by events unfolding in Melbourne.
Who modelled an Australian recovery with Melbourne spending an extra month in lockdown and the NSW-Victoria border shut, Gladys Berejiklian having to endure the humiliation of eating her many and incessant words of criticism of Annastacia Palaszczuk?
It seems naive in retrospect, but policymakers are learning much as they go, and will continue to do so. How good are Australians at complying with lockdown restrictions and social distancing for more than a few weeks? How does compliance fare in a second lockdown? Or a third? At what point does the vague sense of mutual sacrifice and community solidarity get replaced with resentment, anger and outright refusal to comply?
And, in the absence of a vaccine, how long do policymakers stick with lockdowns as the primary response to new outbreaks, when each one comes with a serious economic cost?
Maybe Victoria will quickly bring the outbreak under control, and we can go back to the dream of a uniform national recovery, and such questions will never have to be answered. But that’s the best-case scenario.
Sensible contingency planning requires an assessment of how long support measures like JobKeeper should be continued beyond the initial deadline of September, at least for firms that continue to face major revenue shortfalls as a result of renewed or persisting lockdowns. And Scott Morrison might want to hold off on his increasing tendency to blame jobless people for their unemployed status.
Until there’s a vaccine, the new normal looks nothing like the old. It’s a world where, at any moment, COVID-19 could re-emerge to devastate an economy, where the pandemic becomes about individual cities and single suburbs and tower blocks, not nations; a world of persistent disruption that requires policymakers not to slip back into old modes of thinking, old rhetoric and old political tactics, but be ready to respond quickly to a disease that’s proving more resilient than they ever assumed.
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“A disease that’s (sic) proving more resilient than ever assumed?” By whom? Certainly not anyone with a medical background or anyone who had recognised that suppression policies don’t equal eradication policies. Your conclusion is stated as though Covid’s re-emergence in clusters is surprising. It isn’t. It was always going to behave this way. All it takes is momentary lapses in vigilance, and people are fallible. Study any epidemic ever and this becomes blindingly clear.
As for “ Andrews’ appalling government” I assume that was meant with tongue firmly in cheek. They’re doing their best under shocking pressure. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few Premiers are so exhausted when this thing finally abates they resign to lead a quiet life.
Why the (sic)? Apostrophe is in correct spot.
Which is, not that is the correct grammar.
Catherine – I beg to differ. “Which”, as I understand it, introduces phrases or clauses THAT [note] can be left out without destroying the sense. e.g. “Apples, which are very plentiful at this time of year, are good sources of vitamin C”
Not much interest in the grammar, me.
More inclined to focus on the point of what you contributed, Catherine.
With which, I happen to agree!
Point taken DT, but it can be endlessly fascinating to the small-minded. That first sentence of yours, for example, beautifully illustrates your point (as intended) by making it in perfectly acceptable, idiomatic, expressive, educated, yet supposedly ungrammatic English.
On Catherine’s important points, I differ slightly:
I understand re-emergence was to be expected, and BK’s “surprise” is puzzling, but this was no momentary lapse in vigilance. Rather it was the result of systemic problems and failures in Victoria’s management of the virus: in failing to brief and monitor out-sourced security adequately and in failing to anticipate the needs of communities such as those living in the towers. Nonetheless, “shocking pressure” yes, and the Andrew’s government is not remotely “appalling”.
I’m still stuck at the couple of roustabouts, Keith, who operated a ‘security business’ out of a ‘shack’ on King (Kangaroo?) Island, who somehow managed to ‘win’ the contract to provide various ‘services’ on Manus Island.
How many $M was that worth, again?
Then, what did they do, having won that contract, given they didn’t actually have any a) security staff, or b) infrastructure to provide security sevices?
They subcontracted it out……….which was followed by those further down the line further contracting it out.
This rubbish has been going on for decades, and it’s entirely based on the Yank ‘inspired’ neoliberal model.
I’ve recently finished reading ‘The Shadow World’, by Andrew Feinstein, about the global arms trade.
Ever seen the film ‘War Dogs’? Well, the 2 twenty somethings who won Yank contracts to supply killing gear, to all sorts of killers did a fair swag of subcontracting, themselves. Albanian warlords flogging Soviet era weapons and munitions.
This ‘system’ was set up for the precise purpose of ‘distancing’ (not ‘social’) of the predators from responsibility and accountability.
The Andrews government made a mistake, but they didn’t invent this system that operates all over the (particularly) Western world.
Halliburton ring a bell? Iraq ring a bell? Afghanistan ring a bell?
Personally, I’m sick and tired of ignorant dodgers, like Keane, shilling for that system, and then singling out someone like Andrews for being caught in a system that he had nothing to do with establishing, or sustaining, particularly in the times of a pandemic.
To label the Andrews government as “appalling” is to deflect from the people who benefit from this rubbish.
And, I’ll give you a hint – find yourself the Saturday Paper, from last weekend, and the article by Karen Middleton, about Morrison & Co increasingly governing by “Henry VIII clauses”.
“Clauses”, otherwise known as “decrees”.
Just attempted to respond, Keith.
And, off we went to moderation, again.
Ultimatum delivered. Either explain why (which would be a first, other than ‘it’s an algorithm’), or refund my recently extended subscription and I’ll nick orf to somewhere else, where they value ‘subscriber engagement’.
Crikey never explains, apologises (though that used to occur) and will NOT refund a zac after 48hrs – read the fine print.
Really don’t care, Idunn – if it wants to be a shill rag, I’m outta here, irrespective of the tsunami of ‘appeals’ to support ‘independent media’.
Hacks are hacks, particularly when the ‘noo boss’ is an ex-Rupe boss.
‘Read the fine print’!
Hilarious ‘advice’.
Who the fork cares?
To quote Mr Neville Shunt;
“The point is taken, the elk is dead, the beast stops at Swindon, Chabrol stops at nothing, I’m having treatment and La Fontaine can get knotted.”
There are no indications of “ systemic” problems in the Victorian government re Covid and your implication is unwarranted. The mistakes made by the security company re hotel quarantine are concerning enough to the Victorian government to have instituted an inquiry. I’m sure they were reassured the staff knew what they were doing. After all, outsourcing is the norm these days. Hindsight though is 20/20.
As for being able to judge the needs accurately of every community in a society as diverse as Victoria’s when an overall health strategy is implemented, that’s a huge ask.
Mistakes get made in emergencies. Casting aspersions as we try to emerge from this crisis is just cheap sniping.
“Outsourcing is the norm” – that sounds systemic to me. It wasn’t a strategy devised ad hoc, it’s entrenched – everywhere, to be sure, but here too.
I applaud the government instituting an enquiry, precisely because this action implies that the problems might very well be systemic, and not just a matter of unpredictably rogue operators reassuring the government that all was well.
The towers stand out on the Melbourne landscape. They are a responsibility of government. They are crowded, vertical, and indifferently served by lifts. Further, they are home to a variety of groups with very particular reasons for vulnerability in a pandemic, not least being poverty. And then there are linguistic and finally cultural issues.
Apparently, none of this was seen, and no anticipatory action was taken, by Australia’s most progressive government, in Australia’s most progressive city. I would have thought, I would have hoped, to such a government it would have been bread and butter. That it was not suggests some systemic problem to me.
As a person who has never voted LNP or any other group to the right of Labor, and as a person who has hitherto unreservedly admired and defended (here and elsewhere) the Andrews government’s response, I think I have a right to be disturbed. I admire Andrews’ forthrightness and directness even now in facing up to things and dealing with what he has to do and I cannot foresee him losing my support. I don’t think it is cheap sniping to express my dismay at the particular nature of these failures.
“Whatever the specific details about how the appalling Andrews government has bungled its way into a second big wave of infections …” Seriously Bernard? I’m fed up to the back teeth with the politicising and criticising by the MSM, led by the Murdoch creeps, of every single thing the Vic and other Labor state govts do and are doing as they grapple with this slippery killer virus for which there is no, repeat, no rule book. I expect better from Crikey. You go on to talk about how secondary lock downs are happening all over the global place and that policy makers are learning as they go. Well the latter applies as much to Melbourne as it does to Leicester, Bradford, areas of Spain, Morocco, India etc etc. I don’t think for one second that the exhausted but still determined-looking Dan Andrews and his team aren’t trying to do the best they can to save the Australian lives in their sphere of responsibility.
Megsays, I could not agree with you more. NSW had its cruise ship debacle and retirement village, Tasmania had scary times. Any of the states can have another outbreak. I am sick an tiered of the politicisation of this global serious health and economic disaster. For the population to continue too stick to the rules of social distancing etc. , our media and politicians have to lead and not undermine an already difficult life in unpredictable times.
Why is there not a greater push for everyone wearing masks in public. There is now overwhelming scientific evidence that wearing masks provide a higher level of protections than not wearing them. But the benefits would only be seen if everyone has to wear them.
I’m with you on the masks. It’s one of the only ways beyond distancing and hygiene to combat spread.
I’m baffled by the government’s messages and policies towards face masks. They will lock people in their apartments before mandating face masks.
Wear face masks in public in Victoria !
Masks should be encouraged, if not mandated.
A comforting thought but that is all that it is. The size of virus is smaller than the lower wavelengths for light. If one can see light through a surgical masks (assuming that it is fitted correctly) the mask is NOT going to help.
The virus is ‘airborne’ and can also be obtained from surfaces. The effectiveness of masks are comparable to Exodus 12-13 (i.e. the angel of death).
I am with you too Meg – BK, get your biased head together and accept that Andrews and Palacziuk have been the outstanding premiers during this crisis, and only their steely determination has held Scomo back from another leadership debacle. And in the process earned him credit that he clearly does not deserve
Well put.
I just love (not) how “We are all in this together” slogan abandoned? Equally Federal Govt talking heads disengagement to avoid Victorian contamination? Fully agree with Meg and Fairmind. Andrews doing the heavy lifting for us all. Give him some support for he is carrying the nation on his shoulders right now.
Bye the bye . . Four Corners. It is a bloody disgrace that those who lost everything in ‘Fires’ are still on the bones of their arses . . . freezing in southern winter?? All they are asking for . . . not to be forgotten. Surely our charities and Federal Govt can do better/?/?/?
.
Care to elaborate on that point you’ve made Mr. Hird ?
Bwahaha…Good point. I have an aversion to paying tax. Sorry. The more they lock me down here in Frankston the more ideas I come up with on how to not pay it.
[email protected]:36am
Blood over your door lintels ( a chet in Hbrw ) beats face masks, any day.
I couldn’t express it better myself. Our own Victorian Government is looking after its residents to the best of its ability and showing so much compassion and caring as they do it in the interest of Victorians health and safety.
Bernard also made that statement with no evidence to back it up. I would think at the very least if you’re going to make a judgement of a government as ‘appalling’, seemingly out of the blue, you’d be falling over yourself to add the context so the reader would know why you hold such a view.
The only thing appalling about the Andrews government’s response to the bushfires and Covid is your description of it as such, Mr Keane. One of your predecessors, Hilary Bray, eventually got a job as Liberal Staffer Christian Kerr. Are you auditioning for a similar future?
Crikey had a reputation for fair comment. You are putting it at risk.
Seconded
Thirded.
Fourthed.
Sooner the better – if not already the case and this is just his day job.
I agree. It is an outrageous comment from BK. I will now decide whether I will continue my Criky subscription. I hope the leaders at Crikey are reading this anger and resentment for the biased and “appalling” comment from one of its senior contributors. Disgraceful
Doubtful.
He, and others here, have been writing “appalling & asinine” pieces for too long to be considered an aberration – more a feature of this site.
There is a house style/agenda and dissent is not tolerated.
Well, I know how to show my disapproval. Goodbye, Crikey.
The many “old timers” missing from these threads suggest that they made the same choice.
Pity, once a light in the darkness, now a feeble, guttering candle.
Look at every word you’ve written here, Bernard, and then tell me how you come up with the gratuitous ‘appalling Andrews government’. From where I sit in voluntary self isolation, I see an exhausted man giving 110% to serve the people of Victoria. A man who fronts every hostile and combative press conference and still doesn’t walk away until every question is answered with honesty and sincerity. Then compare that with the ducking and weaving Prime Minister. Compare again with the Victorian opposition leader who can’t provide consistency from day to day in his carping criticisms. Then you’ll see what appalling looks like. I really expected better of Crikey.
Agree.
If Albanese rubbished Morrison each day the way that O’Brien rubbishes Andrews, the Murdoch rags would have imploded in rage.
Curmudgeon – O’Brien is channeling Abbott v Gillard. Mudocker’s media piles in because it’s their MO, their DNA, and their very raison d’etre.
Spot on Indi. I think perhaps it’s BK who’s truly exhausted. He clearly needs a rest if today’s spray is any indication..
There’s a lot of gratuitous editorialising from Bernard in this article . Does he have a particular axe to grind with the Andrews Government in Victoria? If so and if Crikey aspires to be more than a glorified student newspaper, I suggest he tones it down. Alternatively such articles should be clearly identified as comment with an approriate discliamer.