The three major political pollsters all got it badly wrong on May 18. Newspoll's election-eve poll predicted a two-party-preferred (2PP) result of 51.5%-48.5% to Labor, almost exactly the reverse of the actual result, with the Coalition's primary vote more than three points higher than polling suggested.

Galaxy Research, also controlled by YouGov, had Labor winning 51%-49% and underestimated the Coalition vote by two points. Ipsos also predicted 51%-49% in its last poll. Essential reported 51.5%-48.5% in its final poll. Days earlier, veteran polling outfit Roy Morgan also weighed in, predicting 52%-48%.