Labor thought they had this one, and the pollsters, uniformly, agreed. Poll after poll after poll went, nationally, to Labor -- at 51-49 or 52-48 -- with the numbers not shifting at all throughout the campaign. But as William Bowe noted a few days ago, the herding of the polls around a single outcome raised the possibility they were all wrong -- which is exactly how it turned out.
Instead, a wholly unexpected swing to the government in Queensland -- delivered via preference flows from One Nation and Clive Palmer voters -- and a failure of Victoria to shift as much to Labor as expected, plus the voters of Bass and Braddon performing their usual havoc, got the government over the line. Scott Morrison, who has led a solo effort throughout the election campaign, is now prime minister in his own right and the new Liberal hero.