The 2019-20 budget forecasts unemployment at 5% for this financial year and the next two. Which seems quite good and very stable. But can you believe it? It forecasts GDP growth of 2.25% this financial year and 2.75% in the next two. Modest but steady. But should you trust that forecasts either?
The Morrison government is proudly “back in black”. The 2019-20 budget projects spending less than it takes in revenue. So far so good. But where AC/DC turned up the amplitude, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg plays the song pianissimo. The surpluses in this budget are whisper quiet. They line up over the next seven years without ever reaching more than 1% of GDP.